The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the first flu pandemic in 41 years. Here's how they define Phases 5 and 6:
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the
virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most
countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase
5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to
finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the
planned mitigation measures is short.
Phase 6,
the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at
least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the
criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
As Lawrence Altman, MD, explained in the New York Times Science Times earlier this week, the word pandemic has had various definitions and connotations over the years:
The word implies the rapid spread of an infectious disease to many
countries in different regions, hitting each with more or less the same
severity. But in fact, severity varies — not all people are infected at
the same time, and not every country need be affected.
And
there can be many other factors, including the numbers and percentages
of people falling ill and dying; a population’s vulnerability to the
disease, based on previous rates of infection; and the quality of
health care facilities and disease monitoring systems.
Not
least is that scientists do not know precisely how pandemics arise,
what fuels them, why they vary in their lethality, why some occur in
waves and why they stop.
Daniel Henninger puts things in perspective in today's Wall Street Journal:
The WHO reports 141 deaths globally from swine flu, with 106 of those
(75%) in Mexico and 27 in the U.S. Seasonal influenza kills 35,000 to
50,000 Americans each year. It is now evident that the current strain
of the H1N1 swine-flu virus is a "mild" version rather than a
pathogenic killer like the 1918 Spanish flu. In fact, seasonal flu
kills 500,000 people annually world-wide, a staggering death toll that
occurs with hardly any of the public losing a moment's sleep over it.